Tools · breakeven win rate calculator
I check the win rate I need before I enter
On a credit spread, the profit is capped at the credit I take in, and the loss is something I set by choosing when to close. So the win rate I need isn't a given — my exit rule sets it. The defaults below are the example from my post.
Enter your numbers
Per contract: a win pays $225 · a full loss costs $275
Held to expiration
Breakeven win rate
55.0%
win this often just to break even
One loss erases 1.22 wins
Expected value per trade at a 60% win rate
+$25
+$2,500 over 100 trades
Closed at 60% of max loss
Breakeven win rate
42.3%
win this often just to break even
One loss erases 0.73 wins
If the win rate stays at 60%
+$69
+$6,900 over 100 trades
With an exit rule: how far the win rate could fall and still match holding to expiration
The win rate could fall from 60% to 48.7% — 11.3 percentage points — and the expected value would still match holding to expiration.
Exiting early also closes some trades that would have come back, so the win rate drops too. How far it actually drops is something only your own records can show.
Expected value per trade by win rate
| Win rate | Hold to exp. | Exit rule |
|---|---|---|
| 30% | −$125 | −$48 |
| 35% | −$100 | −$28.5 |
| 40% | −$75 | −$9 |
| 45% | −$50 | +$10.5 |
| 50% | −$25 | +$30 |
| 55% | $0 | +$49.5 |
| 60%← yours | +$25 | +$69 |
| 65% | +$50 | +$88.5 |
| 70% | +$75 | +$108 |
※ Assumptions — a 100 multiplier per contract. The exit is assumed to fill exactly at your stop level (in practice, gaps and slippage can fill worse). This calculator does not estimate win rates; it only does arithmetic on the numbers you enter.
The posts behind this calculator
- I lowered the win rate I need from 55% to 42% — by changing the average loss, not my hit rate
- A 9-to-1 credit spread, and what it actually asked for
For payoff charts by strategy, see the strategy calculator
※ This is an educational calculator that does arithmetic on the numbers you enter. It is not investment advice and does not recommend any security, strike or strategy. It does not estimate win rates, and real fills can differ because of gaps, slippage and fees. Options trading can lose the full amount at risk in a short time.