Notes
Records, not recommendations. What I actually saw, what I actually did, and what I still don't know.
Searches public posts. The journal has its own search.
I put Friday's net call flow through one more filter — separating direction from expiration cleanup
Net call flow fell all day, yet the S&P 500 finished higher. A year of data suggests Friday's net call number carries expiration-driven selling that has little to do with direction.
Two days with the same gamma — the two measurements that separated a trend from a range
Both sessions were solidly in positive gamma. One climbed 87 points; the next spent the day inside 25.9 points and closed where it started. I measured how persistent the flow was and how thick the put gamma sat next to price.
Max pain and the butterfly on expiration day — I close while price passes the center
On August expiration, max pain landed within 4 points of the close, and with my center 110 points below it that was exactly why the position went to zero. Three others aimed at the same expiration followed max pain instead, and that number was 218 points wrong. Seven positions, written down.
On a trend day, I put credit spreads on the side price has already left
Put credit in the path of a downtrend, call credit partway up a rally. Three days of my own trades, and where I now place credit spreads on trend days.
Picking the Two Strikes on a Long-Dated Put Backspread: Three Yardsticks, Worked Out
Once the two strikes are set, the character of this structure is mostly decided. I ran cost, delta and standard deviation on a 60-day example to see where they meet, what changes between a 1x2 and a 1x3, and why index put skew works against it. All numbers are model outputs.
Backspread vs. Ratio Spread — Price, Not Strike, Decides Which Leg You Sell
Try to memorize whether you sell the higher or the lower strike and calls and puts will trip you up. I kept one sentence instead. Here's how it sorts the four structures, and how counting contracts tells me whether the risk is capped or open.
Backspreads and Naked Selling — The One Point I Look for First on a Payoff Chart
Structures with a big payoff have a spot where the chart dips deepest. For a backspread, that hole sits at the long strike. For a naked short call, there's no floor at all. I walked four structures all the way through with example numbers.
I Started Writing the Grading Sheet Before the Hypothesis
Writing down a call isn't enough. By the evening I read it in whatever way flatters me. Fixing the grading rules before the open made the verdict — right direction, not enough distance — write itself.
Gamma flip, plainly — a one-paragraph definition, then two real days
It does not say "above the flip means up." Here is the definition in one paragraph, then two consecutive sessions that ended in opposite ways, with the numbers as recorded.
I took the certain gain instead of the maximum one
Price was bouncing off the low, the position had already traded above 10 and come back, and the full debit was on the table. Watching how fast price was walking past the center, I closed two hours ahead of my own rule.
I used yesterday's data to predict this morning's gap — the correlation was 0.000
41.6% of a trading day's movement happens while I cannot see a screen. And that stretch does not remember yesterday.
I lowered the win rate I need from 55% to 42% — by changing the average loss, not my hit rate
In options the winning side is capped by the contract. The losing side is the only one I set. So I stopped working on maximizing gains and went after the average loss.
Choosing an expiry for a long put — same-day, next-day, one week, one month, priced out
Same strike, same view. Change only the expiry and you pay 74× more. The real cost turned out not to be theta.
AM settlement lands on a third number — the day I met SET
Not Thursday's close, not Friday's open. It is built from the opening print of all 500 components, and it can be a price the index never traded that day.
I re-ran a 15-year backtest and 85.6% became 53.8%
I built a rule, traded it, and withdrew its justification the same week. What broke was not the market — it was the *open* column I had used.
I drew the butterfly curve as it sharpens
In the morning it barely matters where you center it — every strike prices about the same. By the close, the value collects on one point. Here is how that curve actually changes, and how I picked the center.
A 9-to-1 credit spread, and what it actually asked for
A 10% breakeven win rate. On the numbers alone it was the best strike on the board. It was also the one strike that bet on distance rather than direction.
I bought a same-day put and a next-day put on the same view — one finished at −17%, the other at −100%
Same day, same direction, same reasoning. Only the expiry differed. One day's record.
Max pain is a curve, not a number — and sources disagree
A single max pain figure hides two things: the shape of the curve, and how stale the open interest is.
Gamma flip — why the same news gets absorbed on one day and amplified on the next
Why dealers sell into rallies and buy into dips, and where that flips. Starting from delta.
I open the butterfly before price arrives — the same fly cost 3.5× more five hours later
By the time I am confident, it is already expensive. One day's record of how entry timing changed the required win rate by 3.5×.
I pull VIX1D from Cboe now
Accurate inputs make accurate calculations. A record of a 38% gap from a free source.
The day I questioned a 100% win rate
One ticker filter, 329 alerts re-scored, and a validation system that got better for it.
Meet Billie
Keeping only the signals that pass validation. The AI trading partner I built.
Three years on, I expanded a rule from my own book
The 1:3 rule was a standard for buying. I built the one for selling.
I debated risk rules with my AI, and got a better rule
Billie raised an objection, I pushed back, and then the real question appeared.
I Priced Out a 0DTE Gamma Tool Before Writing Code
An afternoon of due diligence, the OPRA fee schedule, and the competitor teardown that redirected the plan.